Horse Racing / Brad Thompson / 27 August 2010 / Leave a comment Free Bet View Market

With such conflicting form lines, as is often the case with two and three-year-old races, punters need to be wary of jumping on the Golden Rose favourites, suggests Brad Thompson.

As impressive as Toorak Toff was in his first-up win in the Vain Stakes, he hasn’t taken any significant wins, other than against Star Witness...

Two runners dominate the market - Masquerader and Toorak Toff.

Both have serious and genuine claims, and have been massacred with betting agencies throughout the week.

As impressive as Toorak Toff was in his first-up win in the Vain Stakes, he hasn't taken any significant wins, other than against Star Witness (who was wasn't far from him at the post).

It must also be noted that Toorak Toff failed in two cameo appearances in the Sydney autumn, although admittedly he wasn't beaten far in G1 company, behind Yosei in the Sires Produce and Skilled in the Champagne.

Masquerader must be respected on his last run. He's done little wrong, but backing favourites in these races doesn't pay.

However, Tim Martin-trained Sasa sat three-wide without cover for the majority in the Champagne, only to be edged out on the line. She has been plagued by bad luck in her five career starts, and at odds of $31 for the Golden Rose, is a knock-out hope. Martin is renowned for his winning association with juveniles, and he has openly stated for quite some time this is his best hope for glory.

Another recognised for being victorious with youngsters, is David Payne, who prepares under-rated and luckless galloper Praecido.

One win from eight starts doesn't exactly leave punters effusive about his chances, until they investigate his previous runs in finer detail. At a quote of $21, the son of One Cool Cat has attracted some support with punters, but still reflects top value. He might be looking for mile, but with a hot pace expected, this race might turn into more of a 1500-1600m test.

In the G1 Champagne, Praecido was second last on the fence at the turn and was full of running but had nowhere to go, and by the time he gained clear running, Boto Vermelho had lost ground in front Praecido forcing him to once again lose ground. At the 100m mark, Praecido found yet another gear after two hamperings in the straight and was the one taking ground off them all in the last 25m. He was beaten 2.5L into 10th in a blanket finish.

Payne then gave him a freshen up, and returned in the G1 Run to the Rose two weeks ago, where he got well back and was full of running at the top of the straight. But, once again, the galloper on his inside shifted ground and forced Praecido to alter course, losing valuable momentum. Jockey Tommy Berry had an absolute lap-full of horse at the top of the rise, and just as he was about to let him go, he was inconvenienced.

In my opinion, he should have almost won both races.